Best Supporting Actress

I have now seen most of the Oscar nominated movies. Or at least all of the movies that I will see before the Oscars actually happen. So it now time for me to make my predictions for the several of the categories. I will start with Best Supporting Actress. The nominees are Adriana Barraza (Babel), Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal), Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine), Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls), and Rinko Kikuchi (Babel).

I have not read too much about the picks, but it seems like Jennifer Hudson is the popular pick. I think she will win the award, however I would rank her last. This is not the feel good award or the underdog award or the best singer award. It isn't even the "she outsang, outacted, out-whatevered Beyonce" award. This is the best supporting actress award! She is a very strong singer, but I thought her acting was just ok. (Note that this opinion may be influenced by my dislike for musicals.)

Cate Blanchett was very good, but I think she had the misfortune to be in the same movie as Judith Dench. She was completely overshadowed by Dench. She is not in the same league as Dench, but then almost nobody is. Anyway, Blanchett gave a strong performance, but it was Dench's movie.

Barraza, Breslin and Kikuchi all did excellent jobs. All turned in memorable performances in movies where there was no dominating stars. Both Babel and Little Miss Sunshine were more ensemble performances. I would rate Barraza and Kikuchi a little higher. Babel was a movie with several distinct threads and Barraza and Kikuchi were clearly the stars of their threads. Breslin was one of several characters in Little Miss Sunshine. I find it hard to pick between Barraza and Kikuchi, but will give a slight nod to Barraza. I think her role was more demanding.

So my picks for Best Supporting Actress are:
Deserves It : Adriana Barraza
Will Win It: Jennifer Hudson